Production status and trend of some chemical fiber

Analysis on the production status and trend of some chemical fiber products in China in 2007

in 2006, China's chemical fiber industry still showed a good operation situation of rapid recovery despite the impact of adverse factors such as high oil prices, continuous appreciation of RMB and obvious intensification of international trade frictions

in 2006, China's chemical fiber output reached 20.2549 million tons, an increase of 12.94%, and the production and marketing rate of main products reached 100%. While the production and marketing were booming, the import volume of chemical fiber continued to decline by 15.53%, and the export volume continued to increase significantly by 47.74%. It is estimated that in 2007, the prices of synthetic fiber products and human fiber products will rise, the growth rate will continue to fall, and the output will reach 22.3 million tons, an increase of about 10%; Import 1.1 million tons, down about 15%; Exports will continue to grow, reaching 1.3 million tons, an increase of 25%; The total profit is expected to reach 7.5 billion yuan, an increase of 13%, and the loss side is expected to decline by 4.3 percentage points

I. polyester staple fiber: there is great pressure on investment rebound

in 2006, the output of polyester staple fiber in China was 5.8216 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%, a decrease of 7.48 percentage points over 2005. According to the sampling statistics, the production and marketing rate of polyester staple fiber exceeds 100%, and the inventory decreased by 33.07% compared with 2005. At present, 29000 tons of electronic tensile testing machine is widely used in the export of polyester staple fiber, with a year-on-year increase of 40.31%. It is estimated that the operation of polyester staple fiber industry in 2007 is as follows:

1 The supply of raw materials will ease, but the price trend of terephthalic acid (PTA) and its impact on polyester production deserve high attention. Especially after PTA futures contract is listed, the impact of its futures price on the spot market needs to be analyzed and studied

2. Polyester production continues to maintain rapid growth, with an expected growth rate of 10% ~ 12%. Among them, the growth rate of polyester staple fiber is slightly lower, which is expected to be about 8%, and the output is about 6.3 million tons

3. The import of polyester filament and staple fiber will gradually decline, and the export will continue to increase significantly. The domestic demand and export growth rate of non fiber polyester should be higher than that of fiber, but the risk of trade friction will be further increased

4. The benefits maintained steady growth and the operation quality further improved. The main reason is that the price of crude oil has dropped. At present, the price difference between polyester staple fiber and cotton has expanded to 3000 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of European and American restrictions on all cotton products, textile enterprises may also tend to produce more blended yarn, and the decline of cotton blending proportion is inevitable

5. The rebound pressure of fixed asset investment in the industry is still great. According to the statistics of the association, more than 1.2 million tons of polyester will be completed and put into operation in 2007, and the new polyester staple fiber capacity will be about 300000 tons

6. Enterprises increase R & D investment, optimize product structure and improve product grade. Further improvements have been made in product quality, added value, independent innovation ability and independent brand construction

II. Polyester filament: the growth rate of production capacity decreased

in 2006, China's polyester filament industry operated smoothly, the total growth was reasonably returned, the demand for equipment was transformed from scale and quantity type to technical variety and benefit type, enterprises increased technological transformation, and the investment direction of the industry was also developing towards high-tech and differentiated fiber varieties. However, it was noted that there was a rebound in investment in the fourth quarter of 2006. In view of these situations, the operation of polyester filament industry in 2007 is expected to be as follows:

1 Output: the growth rate of production continues to decline, which is expected to be about 10%. The output of polyester is 17.6 million tons, of which the output of polyester filament is about 11.3 million tons. The growth rate of production capacity will continue to decline, but the elimination rate of inferior assets will decline faster

2. Import volume: the import volume of polyester continues to decline, with an estimated import of 450000 tons, including 230000 tons of polyester filament

3. Export volume: the export volume of polyester continues to increase, with an estimated export of 850000 tons, including 500000 tons of polyester filament

4. Economic benefits: the product sales revenue of polyester industry was 247.5 billion yuan, an increase of 15%; The total industrial output value of polyester industry was 251 billion yuan, an increase of 15%; The total profit of polyester polyester industry was 3.85 billion yuan, an increase of 10%

III. viscose fiber: continue to maintain rapid growth

in 2006, the production growth of viscose staple fiber in China accelerated, but due to the increase of market demand and the expansion of product export, the supply and demand were basically balanced; Driven by the rising cost of raw materials, the prices of various products have risen rapidly; The operation of the industry was good throughout the year, with a main business income of 27.054 billion yuan and a total profit of 1.881 billion yuan. The overall operation quality improved. According to the prediction of authoritative institutions, the growth rate of the world economy will slow down in 2007, but it will still maintain a high growth rate of about 4.9%. In addition, due to the influence of "trade friction" and "trade protectionism", China's textile and garment export may also slow down. Combined with these favorable and unfavorable factors, the operation of viscose fiber industry in 2007 is expected to be as follows:

1 Viscose fiber production capacity and output will continue to maintain rapid growth. It is estimated that the production capacity of Zhejiang Changyou, Lijiang Jiuyou and other short fiber enterprises will increase by about 350000 tons, and the production capacity of Zhejiang Changyou and Jilin Changli will increase by about 150000 tons

2. With the continuous progress of viscose fiber equipment and production technology, the improvement of product quality and the increase of foreign demand, the export of products will continue to grow. It is expected that the annual export will exceed 200000 tons, an increase of about 30%

3. It is expected that the viscose staple fiber market will continue to maintain strong demand, and the product price may continue to rise slightly. The proportion of viscose staple fibers used in blending, such as non-woven fabrics, will increase

4. As there is no breakthrough in the application of viscose filament products, the market demand is not expected to increase significantly and basically maintain the current situation. The price of the piston will increase due to the reasons such as increasing the distance between the two sections, but the price of the piston will increase a little. Some European production enterprises stopped production, resulting in an increase in the demand for high-end products; The application field of low-grade products has shrunk, and the price gap with high-grade products will continue to expand

IV. recycled fiber: environmental protection will become a hot spot

it is estimated that due to the serious constraints of the shortage of raw materials and high prices, in 2006, the overall operating rate of China's recycled polyester staple fiber industry was about 60%, and the overall production and marketing rate was only 70% ~ 80%, among which there was a large gap between products. It is estimated that the operation of the renewable fiber industry in 2007 is as follows:

1 Bottle material: environmental protection will become the focus of attention from all walks of life, and environmental protection has become the threshold that the recycled chemical fiber industry must cross. The postponement of environmental protection approval in 2007 and the rumored construction of a large centralized waste trading market also show that the government is more likely to introduce new policies in this regard. It is expected that the supervision on the import of raw materials will be more and more strict, the tension of imported raw materials will increase, and the import price will remain high

2. Product sales: in recent years, the intensification of market competition has forced backbone enterprises to vigorously strengthen the development of new products and new markets. At present, whether it is imitation Dahua polyester short, colored silk, imitation wool, ultra-fine denier polyester short (race down), non-woven fabrics and other fields, or the development of regenerated filament fiber dimension, the technical content of products appears one after another and the added value is improved. It is expected that the good momentum will continue in 2007, and the downstream market of recycled fiber will be wider and wider, especially the market share of recycled polyester staple fiber will increase steadily

the export of recycled chemical fiber (recycled polyester staple fiber is mainly filled with filling materials) accounts for more than 65% of the total export of polyester staple fiber in China. It is expected that the export growth in 2007 will be strong and the export countries will increase

3. Capacity expansion: the enterprise's production expansion plan in 2007 is relatively large, so the contradiction between the shortage of bottle chips is expected to be more prominent. With the increasingly diversified use of bottle chips (home decoration and engineering plastics, etc.), the shortage of raw materials is likely to become a bottleneck restricting the development of recycled fiber industry. It is suggested that enterprises should not continue to blindly increase production capacity, and some advantageous enterprises in the industry should develop and expand themselves by means of mergers and acquisitions

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