Listed companies in the hottest downstream industr

Listed companies in downstream industries: a "tired" word

Introduction: editor's note: in the 2003 semi annual report and annual report of listed companies, SARS has become the most frequent word, while in the annual report of the first half of this year, raw materials, energy and transportation costs have replaced SARS as new keywords. According to the statistics of the Information Department of this newspaper, as of August

according to the statistics of the Information Department of this newspaper, as of August 17, the gross profit margin of the main business of more than 800 listed companies that have published the semi annual report in the first half of 2004 was 19.16%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points compared with 20.20% in the same period last year

on the whole, the gross profit margin of the main business of listed companies has not changed much, but in essence, whether the precision production industry of extruders can be realized has changed dramatically. Although the growth rate of fixed asset investment slowed down in May and June, the total investment scale increased significantly in the first half of the year. The growth of investment scale has promoted the rise of the prices of raw materials, energy and other means of production. According to the report of the price monitoring center of the national development and Reform Commission, the sales price of means of production increased by 14.1% in 2004, 7.7 percentage points higher than the same period of last year; The price of fixed asset investment increased by 6.8% compared with the same period last year. It is the rise in the price of means of production that eventually led to a significant transfer of profits among industries

according to the statistics of the listed companies that have published the semi annual report, the changes in the gross profit margin of the main businesses of each industry are as follows: the gross profit margin of food and beverage, petrochemical plastics, transportation and warehousing, and real estate increased significantly, which were 2.17, 1.89, 8.32, and 4.17 percentage points higher than the same period last year, respectively. Among them, the gross profit rate of chemical fertilizer and viscose staple fiber in the sub industry increased significantly, while the gross profit rate of viscose filament and some downstream chemical products decreased significantly; The gross profit margin of electricity, gas and water, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, textile, clothing and fur, construction, electronics, wholesale and retail was basically the same as that of the same period last year. Among them, the gross profit rate of thermal power in the power industry decreased significantly, while that of hydropower increased significantly; The gross profit margin of papermaking and printing, metal and non-metal, mechanical equipment and instruments, pharmaceutical and biological products, information technology industry and other industries decreased significantly. Among them, the paper printing and information technology industries decreased by 2.94 and 2.64 percentage points respectively year-on-year

the following is a separate analysis of the impact of rising prices of major raw materials on the profitability of downstream industries

crude oil price rise

downstream industries have different reactions

this year, oil prices in the international market continue to rise on the basis of last year's high operation. Among them, the average price of WTI in New York reached US $36.85 per barrel in the first half of the year, up 17.10% from the same period last year; According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of the year, the ex factory price of crude oil increased by 6.4% over the same period last year, the price of gasoline increased by 3.6%, the price of diesel oil increased by 8.5%, and the price of kerosene increased by 8.7%

the impact of crude oil price rise on downstream petrochemical products is relatively complex. The price rise of some petrochemical products in the first half of the year was greater than that of crude oil, so the gross profit margin of products increased. According to the monitoring of the chemical market in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country, the average price of polyethylene in the first half of the year was 9059 yuan per ton, an increase of 22.6% over the same period last year; The average price of polypropylene was 8187 yuan per ton, an increase of 18% over the same period last year; The average price of PVC was 8103 yuan per ton, an increase of 20.85% over the same period last year; The average price of natural rubber was 13818 yuan per ton, an increase of 27.59% over the same period last year

the gross profit margin of synthetic rubber and polyvinyl chloride, the main products of Qilu Petrochemical (600002), increased by 9.73 and 12.98 percentage points respectively year-on-year. Its semi annual report showed that the profit increased due to the rise of product sales price. 100 Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua Mining Co., Ltd. is an enterprise jointly invested by Shanxi Yangquan Coal Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. and the comprehensive development management center of the Ministry of water resources in Xinjiang, with a total investment of 0.23 million yuan, The profit decreased by 137.1 million yuan due to the rise in the price of raw materials such as naphtha. It can be seen that the increase of product sales price far exceeded the increase of raw material price

the gross profit margin of catalyst and fuel oil of Yanhua high tech (000609) increased by more than 10 percentage points year-on-year; The average purchase price of crude oil of Jinzhou Petrochemical (000763) in the first half of the year increased by 14 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the average sales price of gasoline and diesel increased by 378 yuan per ton and 181 yuan per ton respectively, and the gross profit margin of product sales increased from 2.95% in the same period last year to 5.33% in the first half of this year; Sinopec (600028) and Yangzi Petrochemical (000866), which have not yet released the semi annual report, predict that the performance growth will exceed 50% and 100% respectively. Obviously, the rise in product sales prices is the main driving force for the company's performance growth

some companies that are more downstream, such as chemical raw materials, chemicals, plastics, etc., saw a decline in gross profit margin in the first half of the year because the increase in the purchase price of upstream petrochemical products exceeded the product sales price. Yaxing chemical (600319) saw a year-on-year decrease in gross profit margin of 8.21% in the first half of the year due to the sharp rise in the price of raw materials such as polyethylene; The gross profit margin of plastic products of Keyuan group (000979), PVC resin and caustic soda of Jinlu group (000510) decreased year on year; As the prices of PTA and eg, the main raw materials of industrial polyester (600259), have continued to rise sharply, resulting in a sharp decline in the gross profit margin of polyester chips, FDY filaments and other major products, the performance of industrial polyester (600259) may suffer losses in the first half of the year; The gross profit margin of plastic products of Guotong pipe industry (600444) also decreased by 6 percentage points year-on-year

for the transportation industry, due to the adverse impact of SARS last year, the base of transportation profit is relatively low. Therefore, the transportation profit and gross profit margin of the transportation industry have increased significantly in the first half of the year. In contrast, the rise in fuel prices has a relatively small impact on Performance, and most relevant listed companies have not mentioned too much the impact of fuel price rises on performance in their semi annual reports. Although aviation fuel accounts for more than 30% of the cost of airlines, since the General Administration of aviation has not yet raised the price of aviation fuel, airlines were little affected by the rise in crude oil prices in the first half of the year, as can be seen from the semi annual report published by Shanghai Airlines (600591)

as the coal consumption of the power industry accounts for more than 60% of the total demand for coal, and the coal cost accounts for 50% - 70% of the production cost of thermal power enterprises, the rise in coal prices has significantly reduced the gross profit rate of thermal power enterprises in the first half of the year. Even if the upper power price has increased, it cannot make up for the impact of the rise in coal prices

the semi annual report shows that the gross profit margin of thermal power enterprises such as Huaneng International (600011), Shenneng shares (600642), Luneng Taishan (000720), Yuneng Holdings (001896) and suihengyun (000531) in the first half of the year decreased by 15.45, 4.62, 7.69, 15.78 and 7.51 percentage points respectively year-on-year. Huaneng International said that since the second quarter of this year, coal prices have accelerated. Although the company has taken various measures, it is still difficult to offset the rise in power generation costs caused by the rise in coal prices. In the first half of the year, the company's unit fuel cost increased by 25.85% over the same period last year; Yu Neng Holdings said that the unit price of standard coal in the first half of the year increased by 37.62% compared with the same period last year. If the coal price in the second half of the year remains rising, the company may suffer losses in the third quarter; Other thermal power enterprises also said in the semi annual report that the performance of the third quarter may be more affected

the coal consumption of the metallurgical industry accounts for about 20% of the total demand for coal, so the gross profit margin of metallurgical enterprises has also been affected by the rise in coal prices. For example, Tanggang (000709) purchased coke at an average price of 1069 yuan per ton in the first half of the year, up 61% from 663 yuan per ton in the same period last year. The rise in the prices of coke, clean coal and other fuels was one of the main reasons for the decline in the gross profit margin of the steel industry in the first half of the year

the rise in coal prices has also increased the cost of non-metallic mineral products. Conch Cement (600585) said that in the first half of the year, with the coal market in short supply, the price of coal purchased by the company increased by 31% over the same period last year. However, due to the strong ability of cement and other industries to transfer costs to downstream industries, it has little impact on the overall gross profit margin of products

steel price rise

downstream industries are generally affected

although domestic steel prices began to decline sharply in late March this year and stabilized until early June, compared with the same period last year, steel prices in the first half of this year still increased considerably. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the ex factory price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry in the first half of the year increased by 21.5% over the same period last year. Among them, ordinary large steel increased by 24.7% over the same period last year; Ordinary medium-sized steel increased by 30.6%; Ordinary small steel increased by 25.9%; Wire rod increased by 30.3%; Medium and thick steel plates increased by 21.9%

the downstream industries of steel mainly include automobile and parts, construction, home appliances, power equipment, shipbuilding, machinery and other industries, among which auto parts, home appliances, machinery and shipbuilding are the most affected

in the first half of the year, the sales gross profit margin of listed automobile and parts companies decreased significantly, but the main reason was the further fierce national macro-control and industrial competition. Judging from the situation of each company, different enterprises are also affected by the rise in steel prices to different degrees. Among them, medium and high-end car enterprises have rich profits, and steel accounts for a small proportion of the cost. At the same time, such companies transfer the cost pressure of parts and components to the upstream as much as possible, so the impact is relatively small; The low-end car and parts manufacturing enterprises are also relatively affected due to the large cost of steel. For example, Shuguang shares (600303) said that in the first half of the year, affected by the rise in steel prices, the gross profit margin of the company's axle and bus products fell by 3 and 2.44 percentage points year-on-year respectively

the gross profit margin of machinery listed companies has also been affected by the rise in steel prices, such as the gross profit margin of construction machinery such as loaders, bulldozers, excavators and so on has decreased. In the first half of the year, the gross profit margin of Anhui Heli (600761), Sufuma (600290) and Guilin Liugong (000528) decreased by 3.08, 7.24 and 4.33 percentage points respectively

the rise in steel prices also directly affected household appliance enterprises. Due to the fierce competition in the home appliance market, it is difficult to pass on the rise in costs to consumers. In the first half of the year, the gross profit margin of most home appliance listed companies fell year-on-year, such as Aucma (600336), whose gross profit margin fell by 2.91 percentage points. In contrast, real estate enterprises, especially large-scale enterprises, have increased their overall gross profit margin in the first half of the year because the average selling price of commercial housing nationwide increased by more than 10%, better digesting the impact of the rising cost of raw materials such as steel

the downstream gross profit margin of other raw materials was hit

cotton as